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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 51 yards to BAL 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.72 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP