4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
BAL Away

Baltimore Ravens

6-3 HC John Harbaugh
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

3-6 HC Dennis Allen
Monday 2022-11-07 · 20:15 ET Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

BAL
50.2%
NO
49.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • BAL defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BAL on 3 more days rest than NO
  • QB edge to BAL: Andy Dalton (NO) -0.029 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.020 EPA/dropback (NO starting Andy Dalton in place of Jameis Winston)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BAL 24 17–31
–
NO 23 16–30
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 9

BAL

Rashod Bateman WR Out Foot
Mark Andrews TE Doubtful Knee
Gus Edwards RB Doubtful Hamstring
Demarcus Robinson WR Questionable Groin
Marcus Peters CB Questionable Quadricep
Malik Harrison LB Questionable Foot
Patrick Mekari G Questionable Back

NO

Chase Hansen LB Out Knee
Mark Ingram RB Out Knee
Marshon Lattimore CB Out Abdomen
Jarvis Landry WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 27
–
NO 13

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:30 TD BAL (1:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 22, YAC 2 BAL 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 02:05 TD BAL (2:05) (Shotgun) 17-K.Drake right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – NO 0
  • Q2 00:05 FG NO (:05) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. BAL 14 – NO 3
  • Q3 08:29 FG BAL (8:29) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 17 – NO 3
  • Q3 01:30 FG NO (1:30) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. BAL 17 – NO 6
  • Q4 08:36 FG BAL (8:36) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 20 – NO 6
  • Q4 07:02 TD BAL (7:02) (Shotgun) 17-K.Drake right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 26 – NO 6
  • Q4 04:22 TD NO (4:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 11, YAC 30 BAL 27 – NO 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:07) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to BAL 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:49) 11-J.Stout punts 67 yards to NO 16, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-43-J.Hill.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (8:32) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to BAL 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (15:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to BAL 33, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-17-K.White.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:53) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to NO 22, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (9:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 51 yards to BAL 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (:05) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (8:29) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 13 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (1:30) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:54) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to NO 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 31 for 8 yards (14-K.Hamilton). INJURY UPDATE: NO 20-P.Werner, ankle, QUESTIONABLE; NO 92-M.Davenport, calf, QUESTIONABLE; BAL 15-D.Jackson, hamstring, QUESTIONABLE to return.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 16 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:18) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to BAL 37, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 14 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%

    (8:36) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (5:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 10-T.Smith to NO 31 for 7 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Pass 5, YAC 2

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%

    (:29) 11-J.Stout punts 41 yards to NO 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →