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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 83

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 11-J.Stout punts 67 yards to NO 16, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-43-J.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.63 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 83, worth -5.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model