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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 6 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(5:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 10-T.Smith to NO 31 for 7 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Pass 5, YAC 2

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.13 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model