Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 86

New Orleans Saints 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(15:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to BAL 33, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-17-K.White.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 86, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model