Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 10-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to CIN 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 42 for 27 yards (82-T.Tremble, 50-C.Wooten). FUMBLES (50-C.Wooten), touched at CIN 42, ball out of bounds at CIN 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model