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Carolina Panthers

2-7 HC Steve Wilks
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Cincinnati Bengals

5-4 HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2022-11-06 · 13:00 ET Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CAR
26.7%
CIN
73.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Phillip Walker (CAR): -0.123 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR defense: -0.003 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CAR 17 10–24
–
CIN 25 18–32
Projected margin: CIN by 8 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 9

CAR

Juston Burris S Out Concussion
Rashard Higgins WR Out Illness
Chuba Hubbard RB Out Ankle
Stephen Sullivan TE Doubtful Illness
Amare Barno DE Questionable Knee
Donte Jackson CB Questionable Ankle

CIN

Chidobe Awuzie CB Out Knee
Ja'Marr Chase WR Out Hip
Mike Hilton CB Out Finger
Josh Tupou DT Out Calf
La'el Collins T Questionable Illness
Tre Flowers CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 21
–
CIN 42

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:45 TD CIN (9:45) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – CIN 6
  • Q2 14:39 TD CIN (14:39) 9-J.Burrow right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-53-B.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined. CAR 0 – CIN 13
  • Q2 07:31 TD CIN (7:31) 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – CIN 20
  • Q2 03:50 TD CIN (3:50) 28-J.Mixon right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos, Defensive Offside, declined. CAR 0 – CIN 27
  • Q2 00:11 TD CIN (:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – CIN 34
  • Q3 10:55 TD CAR (10:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – CIN 35
  • Q3 04:44 TD CIN (4:44) 77-H.Adeniji reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-99-M.Ioannidis, Defensive Offside, declined. CAR 7 – CIN 41
  • Q4 07:52 TD CAR (7:52) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 88-T.Marshall for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – CIN 42
  • Q4 01:31 TD CAR (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-R.Blackshear left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 20 – CIN 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:45) 10-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to CIN 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor. PENALTY on CAR-27-M.Blair, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 15.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:47) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to CAR 26, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-49-J.Bachie.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:39) 10-J.Hekker punts 63 yards to CIN 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 29 for 20 yards (57-D.Wilson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:52) 10-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to CIN 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 42 for 27 yards (82-T.Tremble, 50-C.Wooten). FUMBLES (50-C.Wooten), touched at CIN 42, ball out of bounds at CIN 41.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:10) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to CIN 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor. PENALTY on CAR-57-D.Wilson, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 10.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:40) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to CAR 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 12-S.Smith to CAR 28 for 12 yards (31-M.Thomas; 49-J.Bachie). PENALTY on CAR-24-C.Henderson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 21.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (10:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:51) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to CIN 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 29 for 5 yards (40-B.Smith). PENALTY on CIN-80-Mi.Thomas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 29.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 22%

    (12:54) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to CAR 14, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 76%

    (3:51) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →