Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to CIN 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor. PENALTY on CAR-57-D.Wilson, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.20 EP
54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model