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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 8

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 35

What Actually Happened

(10:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model