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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 64

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to CAR 26, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-49-J.Bachie.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model