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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 10-J.Hekker punts 63 yards to CIN 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 29 for 20 yards (57-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.46 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model