Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

(4:33) 13-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to LAC 16, Center-48-L.McCullough. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at LAC 32 for 16 yards (53-N.Kwiatkoski; 48-L.McCullough).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.21 EP
59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model