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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2022-11-06 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

LAC
46.5%
ATL
53.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL defense: +0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LAC on 7 more days rest than ATL
  • LAC offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Marcus Mariota (ATL): +0.122 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24
–
ATL 25
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

LAC

Keenan Allen WR Out Hamstring
Dustin Hopkins K Out right Hamstring
Donald Parham TE Out Hamstring
Chris Rumph LB Out Knee
Mike Williams WR Out Ankle
Jerry Tillery DT Out Back
DeAndre Carter WR Questionable Illness
Amen Ogbongbemiga LB Questionable Groin

ATL

A.J. Terrell CB Out Hamstring
Elijah Wilkinson G Out Knee
Erik Harris S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 20
–
ATL 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:43 TD ATL (10:43) 84-C.Patterson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – ATL 6
  • Q1 00:56 FG ATL (:56) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. LAC 0 – ATL 10
  • Q2 04:43 TD LAC (4:43) 30-A.Ekeler right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – ATL 10
  • Q2 00:36 TD LAC (:36) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – ATL 10
  • Q3 03:48 TD ATL (3:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL-61-M.Hennessy was injured during the play. LAC 14 – ATL 16
  • Q4 05:31 FG LAC (5:31) 15-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 17 – ATL 17
  • Q4 00:03 FG LAC (:03) 15-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 20 – ATL 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (9:24) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to ATL 19, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (:56) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (14:55) 16-J.Scott punts 36 yards to ATL 31, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:23) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to LAC 27, Center-48-L.McCullough. 1-D.Carter to LAC 36 for 9 yards (53-N.Kwiatkoski, 28-M.Ford). PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 27.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:40) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to LAC 24, Center-48-L.McCullough. 1-D.Carter to LAC 37 for 13 yards (25-T.Allgeier, 53-N.Kwiatkoski).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:12) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to LAC 31, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-28-M.Ford.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:03) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to ATL 32, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:42) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to ATL 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 76%

    (12:17) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 63%

    (8:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-D.Carter to ATL 32 for 6 yards (26-I.Oliver).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (5:31) 15-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:33) 13-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to LAC 16, Center-48-L.McCullough. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at LAC 32 for 16 yards (53-N.Kwiatkoski; 48-L.McCullough).