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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to ATL 19, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP