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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 60

Chicago Bears 10 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 16-T.Gill punt is BLOCKED by 15-J.Phillips, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel at CHI 25. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.53 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 19, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model