Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to MIA: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.145 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.172 EPA/dropback
- MIA offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- CHI defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- Wind 17 mph
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
MIA
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:07 FG CHI (11:07) 2-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. MIA 0 – CHI 3
- Q1 07:35 TD MIA (7:35) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – CHI 3
- Q2 15:00 TD CHI (15:00) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – CHI 9
- Q2 10:42 TD MIA (10:42) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – CHI 10
- Q2 08:33 TD MIA (8:33) 16-T.Gill punt is BLOCKED by 15-J.Phillips, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel at CHI 25. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – CHI 10
- Q2 02:00 TD CHI (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 11-D.Mooney for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-J.Phillips]. MIA 21 – CHI 16
- Q3 12:53 TD MIA (12:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 27 – CHI 17
- Q3 11:32 TD CHI (11:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left tackle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 28 – CHI 23
- Q3 06:07 TD MIA (6:07) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 23-J.Wilson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 34 – CHI 25
- Q4 11:42 TD CHI (11:42) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 35 – CHI 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%
(11:07) 2-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(8:33) 16-T.Gill punt is BLOCKED by 15-J.Phillips, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel at CHI 25. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%
(:12) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 18 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(4:50) 16-T.Gill punts 46 yards to MIA 37, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 45 for 8 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 60%
(2:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Gesicki.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(15:00) 1-J.Fields up the middle to CHI 46 for 2 yards (6-M.Ingram).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 14Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%
(7:55) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Smythe.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 13 at the 61 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(3:11) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to MIA 24, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 77 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(2:50) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to CHI 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 28 for 2 yards (27-K.Crossen; 20-J.Bethel).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 58 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 34%
(1:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 19-E.St. Brown.