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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 11

Miami Dolphins 21 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(:12) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.44 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model