Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 83

Chicago Bears 25 – Miami Dolphins 35

(4:50) 16-T.Gill punts 46 yards to MIA 37, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 45 for 8 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 83, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model