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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 14

Chicago Bears 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 2-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.52 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 14, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model