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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 56

Chicago Bears 25 – Miami Dolphins 35

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 1-J.Fields up the middle to CHI 46 for 2 yards (6-M.Ingram).

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.29 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model