Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 61

Chicago Bears 32 – Miami Dolphins 35

(3:11) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to MIA 24, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.68 EP
69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -2.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model