Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 35 – Chicago Bears 32

(2:50) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to CHI 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 28 for 2 yards (27-K.Crossen; 20-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.34 EP
63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model