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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 58

Chicago Bears 32 – Miami Dolphins 35

What Actually Happened

(1:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 19-E.St. Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -2.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP