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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 86

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 14-R.Wright punts 61 yards to WAS 25, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-D.Milne to WAS 37 for 12 yards (29-K.Boyd; 25-T.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.47 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 44, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP