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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2022-11-06 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

MIN
52.8%
WAS
47.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIN: Taylor Heinicke (WAS) -0.097 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.008 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
WAS 21
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

MIN

Dalvin Tomlinson DT Out Calf
Cameron Dantzler CB Questionable Neck
Jalen Nailor WR Questionable Illness

WAS

Jahan Dotson WR Out Hamstring
Cole Holcomb LB Out Foot
David Mayo LB Out Hamstring
J.D. McKissic RB Out Neck
Samuel Cosmi T Questionable Illness
Shaka Toney DE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 20
–
WAS 17

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:23 TD MIN (9:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – WAS 0
  • Q2 00:41 FG WAS (:41) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. MIN 7 – WAS 3
  • Q3 14:10 TD WAS (14:10) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 10-C.Samuel for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIN 7 – WAS 9
  • Q4 14:20 TD WAS (14:20) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 15-D.Milne for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – WAS 16
  • Q4 10:49 FG MIN (10:49) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 10 – WAS 17
  • Q4 07:52 TD MIN (7:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 4-D.Cook for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – WAS 17
  • Q4 00:16 FG MIN (:16) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 20 – WAS 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:56) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to MIN 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 20 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:00) 14-R.Wright punts 49 yards to WAS 45, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-D.Milne to MIN 44 for 11 yards (44-J.Metellus). PENALTY on WAS-37-R.Wildgoose, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 45.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 35%

    (2:06) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:31) 14-R.Wright punts 56 yards to WAS 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-D.Milne to WAS 21 for 11 yards (85-D.Chisena).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 16 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:19) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to MIN 10, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 11 for 1 yard (88-A.Rogers).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 20%

    (8:27) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to WAS 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:32) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to MIN 6, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-34-C.Holmes.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (2:56) 14-R.Wright punts 61 yards to WAS 25, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-D.Milne to WAS 37 for 12 yards (29-K.Boyd; 25-T.Jackson).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 83%

    (:41) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:57) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to WAS 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-D.Milne to WAS 18 for 1 yard (44-J.Metellus; 29-K.Boyd).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 57%

    (5:40) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin (21-A.Evans).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:43) 14-R.Wright punts 60 yards to WAS 5, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-D.Milne pushed ob at WAS 22 for 17 yards (42-A.DePaola; 45-T.Dye).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (10:49) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:22) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to MIN 36, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 5-J.Reagor pushed ob at MIN 46 for 10 yards (47-K.Hudson).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (:16) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.