4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 26

Washington Commanders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(:41) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.80 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model