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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to WAS 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-D.Milne to WAS 18 for 1 yard (44-J.Metellus; 29-K.Boyd).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.86 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model