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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 38

Washington Commanders 10 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin (21-A.Evans).

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.49 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.00 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model