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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 56

Washington Commanders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to MIN 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.96 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model