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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 58

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 14-A.Lee punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.16 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 58, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP