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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2022-11-13 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

ARI
61.4%
LA
38.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ARI: John Wolford (LA) -0.286 vs Colt McCoy (ARI) +0.142 EPA/dropback (LA starting John Wolford in place of Matthew Stafford; ARI starting Colt McCoy in place of Kyler Murray)
  • LA offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ARI 22
–
LA 19
Projected margin: ARI by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

ARI

Max Garcia G Out Shoulder
Rodney Hudson C Out Knee
Byron Murphy CB Questionable Back
Matt Prater K Questionable right Hip
Budda Baker S Questionable Ankle
Greg Dortch WR Questionable Groin
Cody Ford G Questionable Illness
Dennis Gardeck LB Questionable Ankle
D.J. Humphries T Questionable Back
Christian Matthew CB Questionable Hamstring
Kyler Murray QB Questionable Hamstring

LA

Malcolm Brown RB Out Hamstring
Travin Howard LB Out Hip
Greg Gaines T Doubtful Elbow
Alaric Jackson T Doubtful Knee
Brian Allen C Questionable Knee
Robert Rochell CB Questionable Illness
Matthew Stafford QB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 27
–
LA 17

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:20 FG LA (6:20) 8-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. ARI 0 – LA 3
  • Q1 00:18 FG ARI (:18) 15-T.Vizcaino 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 3 – LA 3
  • Q2 02:00 TD ARI (2:00) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – LA 3
  • Q2 00:29 TD ARI (:29) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short left to 18-A.Green for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – LA 3
  • Q3 04:29 TD LA (4:29) (Shotgun) 27-D.Henderson up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – LA 9
  • Q4 07:48 TD ARI (7:48) 6-J.Conner left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – LA 10
  • Q4 03:49 FG ARI (3:49) 15-T.Vizcaino 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 27 – LA 10
  • Q4 00:14 TD LA (:14) (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford pass short left to 12-V.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 27 – LA 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 30%

    (11:16) 3-C.Akers right tackle to 50 for 2 yards (33-A.Hamilton; 34-J.Thompson).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 93%

    (6:20) 8-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 42%

    (4:06) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short right to 18-A.Green to LA 43 for 4 yards (2-T.Hill).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 93%

    (:18) 15-T.Vizcaino 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:46) 11-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to ARI 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 28 for 10 yards (97-M.Hoecht).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:07) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to LA 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell pushed ob at LA 33 for 18 yards (51-T.Vallejo).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:43) 11-R.Dixon punts 25 yards to ARI 43, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-43-J.Gervase. PENALTY on ARI-21-T.Mullen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 43.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:47) 14-A.Lee punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:42) 11-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to ARI 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 34 for 13 yards (58-J.Hollins).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (2:37) 64-S.Harlow reported in as eligible. 12-C.McCoy scrambles right end ran ob at LA 4 for 2 yards (33-N.Scott).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:22) 14-A.Lee punts 46 yards to LA 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell ran ob at LA 26 for 11 yards (89-S.Anderson).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:05) 11-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:41) 14-A.Lee punts 45 yards to LA 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell to LA 41 for 1 yard (57-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 35%

    (15:00) 14-A.Lee punts 38 yards to LA 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:55) 11-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to ARI 23, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 40 for 17 yards (46-J.Pinkney).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 57%

    (8:45) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass deep left to 4-R.Moore pushed ob at LA 15 for 26 yards (22-D.Long) [52-T.Lewis].

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:38) (Shotgun) 27-D.Henderson up the middle to LA 35 for 1 yard (99-J.Watt).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 84%

    (3:49) 15-T.Vizcaino 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.