Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

(8:42) 11-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to ARI 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 34 for 13 yards (58-J.Hollins).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.53 EP
66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model