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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 3-C.Akers right tackle to 50 for 2 yards (33-A.Hamilton; 34-J.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.10 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model