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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 60

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 11-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.50 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model