4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 85

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 14-A.Lee punts 45 yards to LA 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell to LA 41 for 1 yard (57-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -3.18 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.30 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 85, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model