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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 14-A.Lee punts 38 yards to LA 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.58 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model