Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 76

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 17

(12:55) 11-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to ARI 23, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 40 for 17 yards (46-J.Pinkney).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.28 EP
62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model