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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 41

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(8:45) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass deep left to 4-R.Moore pushed ob at LA 15 for 26 yards (22-D.Long) [52-T.Lewis].

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.41 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model