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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 8-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.19 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model