4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(4:06) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short right to 18-A.Green to LA 43 for 4 yards (2-T.Hill).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.85 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model