4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 18

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(:18) 15-T.Vizcaino 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.76 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model