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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 65

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to LA 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell pushed ob at LA 33 for 18 yards (51-T.Vallejo).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.91 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 23, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model