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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 88

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 13-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to ATL 43, Center-48-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.38 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.68 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP