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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Steve Wilks
Thursday 2022-11-10 · 20:15 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

ATL
65.0%
CAR
35.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Phillip Walker (CAR): -0.199 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23
–
CAR 19
Projected margin: ATL by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

ATL

Feleipe Franks TE Out Calf
Erik Harris S Out Foot
A.J. Terrell CB Out Hamstring

CAR

Juston Burris S Out Concussion
Rashard Higgins WR Out Illness
Chuba Hubbard RB Questionable Ankle
Matt Ioannidis DT Questionable Back
Donte Jackson CB Questionable Ankle
Taylor Moton T Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 15
–
CAR 25

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:03 FG CAR (7:03) 4-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. ATL 0 – CAR 3
  • Q2 04:43 TD CAR (4:43) (Shotgun) 15-L.Shenault left end for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CAR 9
  • Q2 01:52 FG CAR (1:52) 4-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. ATL 0 – CAR 13
  • Q2 00:03 FG ATL (:03) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – CAR 13
  • Q3 06:20 TD ATL (6:20) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle to 5-D.London for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-25-X.Woods, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ATL 9 – CAR 13
  • Q3 01:56 TD CAR (1:56) (Shotgun) 33-D.Foreman right tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – CAR 19
  • Q4 09:26 FG CAR (9:26) 4-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. ATL 9 – CAR 22
  • Q4 03:01 TD ATL (3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep left to 12-K.Hodge for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 15 – CAR 22
  • Q4 00:14 FG CAR (:14) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. ATL 15 – CAR 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:30) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CAR 31, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-28-M.Ford.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 79%

    (7:03) 4-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 18 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 45%

    (2:46) 13-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to CAR 9, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 19 at the 35
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 64%

    (7:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to ATL 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-55-C.Littleton.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (5:32) 13-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to ATL 43, Center-48-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 73%

    (1:52) 4-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 94%

    (:03) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:20) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 48%

    (10:53) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to CAR 2, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-12-K.Hodge.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 92
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to ATL 44, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-A.Williams pushed ob at CAR 42 for 14 yards (34-S.Chandler; 42-S.Franklin). CAR-45-G.Ricci was injured during the play.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 15 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 21%

    (14:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 28 yards to CAR 24, Center-48-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%

    (9:26) 4-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 21%

    (7:36) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota sacked at ATL 40 for -8 yards (53-B.Burns).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 50%

    (5:27) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to ATL 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-50-C.Wooten.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-A.Williams to ATL 34 for 9 yards (57-D.Wilson).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 18 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota sacked at ATL 19 for -7 yards (98-M.Haynes).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (:14) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.