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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 31

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 4-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.38 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model