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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +2.75 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model