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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 41

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to CAR 2, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-12-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.18 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model