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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 92

Carolina Panthers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to ATL 44, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-A.Williams pushed ob at CAR 42 for 14 yards (34-S.Chandler; 42-S.Franklin). CAR-45-G.Ricci was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.31 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 92, worth -5.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.74 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 50, worth -2.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP