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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 52

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Carolina Panthers 19

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 28 yards to CAR 24, Center-48-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.53 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model