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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 10 at the 52
Atlanta Falcons 9 – Carolina Panthers 22
What Actually Happened
(7:36) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota sacked at ATL 40 for -8 yards (53-B.Burns).
The Three Options
GO
-0.57 EP
What Happened
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.96 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.44 EP
KICK
-1.50 EP
- 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
- 79% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT
-0.45 EP
Model's Pick
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
